Abstract
Abstract. Understanding the influence of global warming on regional hydroclimatic extremes is challenging. To reduce the potential risk of extremes under future climate states, assessing the change in extreme climate events is important, especially in Asia, due to spatial variability of climate and its seasonal variability. Here, the changes in hydroclimatic extremes are assessed over the Asian monsoon region under global mean temperature warming targets of 1.5 and 2.0 ∘C above preindustrial levels based on representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5. Analyses of the subregions classified using regional climate characteristics are performed based on the multimodel ensemble mean (MME) of five bias-corrected global climate models (GCMs). For runoff extremes, the hydrologic responses to 1.5 and 2.0 ∘C global warming targets are simulated based on the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model. Changes in temperature extremes show increasing warm extremes and decreasing cold extremes in all climate zones with strong robustness under global warming conditions. However, the hottest extreme temperatures occur more frequently in low-latitude regions with tropical climates. Changes in mean annual precipitation and mean annual runoff and low-runoff extremes represent the large spatial variations with weak robustness based on intermodel agreements. Global warming is expected to consistently intensify maximum extreme precipitation events (usually exceeding a 10 % increase in intensity under 2.0 ∘C of warming) in all climate zones. The precipitation change patterns directly contribute to the spatial extent and magnitude of the high-runoff extremes. Regardless of regional climate characteristics and RCPs, this behavior is expected to be enhanced under the 2.0 ∘C (compared with the 1.5 ∘C) warming scenario and increase the likelihood of flood risk (up to 10 %). More importantly, an extra 0.5 ∘C of global warming under two RCPs will amplify the change in hydroclimatic extremes on temperature, precipitation, and runoff with strong robustness, especially in cold (and polar) climate zones. The results of this study clearly show the consistent changes in regional hydroclimatic extremes related to temperature and high precipitation and suggest that hydroclimatic sensitivities can differ based on regional climate characteristics and type of extreme variables under warmer conditions over Asia.
Highlights
Due to its large population and monsoon climate, Asia is highly vulnerable to natural disasters, such as floods and droughts (IPCC, 2013)
As suggested by the IPCC, anthropogenic influences have likely affected the global climate system, and such effects increase the likelihood of intensified extreme climate events worldwide (IPCC, 2013, 2018)
An extreme climate event is a phenomenon that occurs at a level above a threshold defined by a normal range within a given region for each variable
Summary
Due to its large population and monsoon climate, Asia is highly vulnerable to natural disasters, such as floods and droughts (IPCC, 2013). The climate system in this region has changed as a result of global warming, and the frequency and intensity of natural disasters related to climate (e.g., heatwaves, heavy precipitation, and floods) have increased (Thomas et al, 2013, 2014; Thomas and Lopez, 2015; IPCC, 2013). Further increases in atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs) will continue to enhance global warming and cause additional changes in the temporal and spatial patterns of both climate averages and climate extremes at the regional scale (e.g., Trenberth, 2011; Chevuturi et al, 2018). It is essential to reliably simulate future climate changes to understand their impacts on climate extremes as well as hydrology over the Asia region.
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