Abstract
To assess the validity of survey data collected from computer assisted telephone interviews (CATI) for the prediction of retention behavior, data from 754 AF pilots were collected at two points in time. In January 1988 these pilots took part in a CATI study that revealed their intentions to sign contracts for additional years of military service in return for bonus payments of up to $12,000 per year. Beginning in January 1989, these pilots were offered aviation bonus contracts, similar to those studied with the CATI, under the Aviator Continuation Pay (ACP) program enacted by Congress. Two key variables from the survey—career intent and bonus intent—were very accurate in predicting ACP behavior at both the aggregate and the entity levels.
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