Abstract
Abstract. Jungles are a country’s treasures, and the survival of humans and the earth depends on the oxygen that they produce (trees). Three million hectares of jungle are destroyed each year as a result of natural or human-caused wildfires. The massive wildfires occurring in the world confirms that this destructive phenomenon leaves irreconcilable effects on regional ecosystems, vegetation and wildlife; presenting more effective approaches for preventing and managing this complex phenomenon has therefore always been the focus of environmental managers and planners. In other words, it is necessary to model the spread of wildfires, which can be used for utilizing forces and equipment most effectively. Cellular automaton is considered a very simple yet highly effective method that is very capable of modeling dynamic events, like urban development, spread of wildfires, disease outbreaks and others. This study used layers such as height, slope, aspect, vegetation density, roads, rivers and climate as its basis. This was a case study of the Golestan region’s jungles, which calculated the general accuracy of the wildfire spread model to be 65 percent, and the Cohen’s kappa coefficient to be 59 percent.
Highlights
Useful and effective methods that can provide time and space analysis of natural phenomena, including fire, by providing a
In order to evaluate the quality of the fire propagation model in the Golestan forest, the Polygon of the fire propagation was compared with real fire polygon
By comparing the results of fire propagation modeling with real fire information, the output error matrix was obtained according to table (4)
Summary
Useful and effective methods that can provide time and space analysis of natural phenomena, including fire, by providing a. Fire in land, after urban activities and human agriculture, protected area in the east of Golestan Province and West of is the most widespread destructive factor in natural ecosystems. Fire is one of the most important factors of change in the park in Iran and an unbelievable haven for its wildlife. It has condition of forests and pastures (Penttila et al, 2013). Golestan Forest is important factors in disrupting the structure and dynamics of the undoubtedly the most valuable region in Iran, both in terms of forest in natural conditions causing the production of a large quantity and diversity of animal and plant life. Fire is one of the main causes of forest fires is undeniable
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