Intelligent Forecasting of Electricity Consumption in Managing Energy Enterprises in Order to Carry out Energy-Saving Measures

Abstract

The concept of "Digital Transformation 2030", which defines the national goals and strategic objectives of the development of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2030, specifies specialized goals and objectives that are an important message for the introduction of intelligent information management technologies in the electric power industry. The main challenges for the transition to digital transformation are the increase in the rate of growth of tariffs for the end consumer, the increasing wear and tear of the network infrastructure, the presence of excessive network construction and the increase in requirements for the quality of energy consumption. The determining factor in the possibility of developing an effective energy policy is the forecasting of electricity consumption using artificial intelligence methods. One of the methods for implementing the above is the development of an artificial neural network (ANN) to obtain an early forecast of the amount of required (consumed) electricity. The obtained predictive values open up the possibility not only to build a competent energy policy by increasing the energy efficiency of an energy company, but also to carry out specialized energy-saving measures in order to optimize the organization’s budget. The solution to this problem is presented in the form of an artificial neural network (ANN) of the second generation. The main advantages of this ANN are its versatility, fast and accurate learning, as well as the absence of the need for a large amount of initial da-ta for a qualitative forecast. The ANN itself is based on the classical neuron and the error back-propagation method with their further modification. The coefficients of learning rate and sensitivity have been added to the error backpropagation method, and the coefficient of response to anomalies in the time series has been introduced into the neuron. This made it possible to significantly improve the learning rate of the artificial neural network and improve the accuracy of predictive results. The results presented by this study can be taken as a guideline for energy companies when making decisions within the framework of energy policy, including when carrying out energy saving measures, which will be especially useful in the current economic realities.