Intelligence, Threat, Risk and the Challenge of Oversight

Abstract

Intelligence studies has traditionally talked in terms of ‘threats’ though the idea of ‘risk’ has now entered its language, as it has so many other areas of policy. The key distinction remains the notion of threat of intentional action to cause harm: this is the central preoccupation of intelligence agencies that would not normally consider risks that might arise from, say, the unintended outcomes of accidents or interrupted supplies of resources. Another distinction is that intelligence is normally preoccupied with increasing knowledge in conditions of ignorance or uncertainty, while risk analysis is more likely to be quantifiable. The perception of a ‘new terrorism’ has led to the importation of the ‘precautionary principle’ to intelligence with potentially dangerous consequences for democracy. This requires enhanced thinking and practice with respect to the oversight of intelligence activities, especially in developing security networks.