Intelligence failure in countering terrorism in south Asia: a comparative analysis of Holey Artisan and Easter attacks

Abstract

ABSTRACT Intelligence agencies exist to ensure national security, but the path to attain that goal is filled with numerous unexpected threats and vulnerabilities. This makes intelligence failure often highly likely. This article explores and compares the 2016 Holey Artisan (Bangladesh) and the 2019 Easter (Sri Lanka) attacks from intelligence failure perspectives to understand the fault lines in counterterrorism (CT) efforts in the south Asian context. The article summarises the causes of intelligence failures into three broad yet interconnected themes: failure due to issues within the intelligence activities and agencies, failure leading from policy or direction, and failure arising from psychological forces. This article concludes that poorly coordinated counterterrorism policy, poor internal security and border management apparatus and cognitive limits of the security forces were the causes of the intelligence failure in the Holey Artisan attack. On the other hand, the intelligence failure of the Easter Sunday attacks resulted from political leadership, miscommunication and psychological limits of top intelligence officials, and the intelligence community’s failure to adapt to the emerging security threat of Islamist extremism.