Intelligence and the Ukraine War

Abstract

The Russian military invasion of Ukraine, in February 2022, presents the greatest challenge to European security since the end of the Cold War. Russia’s intentions towards Ukraine became clear since the Russian annexation of part of Ukraine, especially the Crimea. Yet most policymakers in the West, and indeed intelligence analyst, were caught by surprise as Russian paratroopers jumped over Kiev’s military airfields. In the weeks coming up to the Russian invasion, many experts argue that Russia will not invade Ukraine, for a variety of political, economic and moral reasons.