Integrative Scenario Assessment as a Tool to Support Decisions in Energy Transition

Jürgen Kopfmüller,Wolfgang Weimer-Jehle,Klaus-Rainer Bräutigam,Jens Buchgeister,Volker Stelzer,Tobias Naegler

doi:10.3390/en14061580

Jürgen Kopfmüller, Wolfgang Weimer-Jehle + Show 4 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.3390/en14061580

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Abstract

Energy scenarios represent a prominent tool to support energy system transitions towards sustainability. In order to better fulfil this role, two elements are widely missing in previous work on designing, analyzing, and using scenarios: First, a more systematic integration of social and socio-technical characteristics of energy systems in scenario design, and, second, a method to apply an accordingly enhanced set of indicators in scenario assessment. In this article, an integrative scenario assessment methodology is introduced that combines these two requirements. It consists of: (i) A model-based scenario analysis using techno-economic and ecological indicators; (ii) a non-model-based analysis using socio-technical indicators; (iii) an assessment of scenario performances with respect to pre-determined indicator targets; (iv) a normalization method to make the two types of results (model-based and non-model-based) comparable; (v) an approach to classify results to facilitate structured interpretation. The combination of these elements represents the added-value of this methodology. It is illustrated for selected indicators, and exemplary results are presented. Methodological challenges and remaining questions, e.g., regarding the analysis of non-model-based indicators, resource requirements, or the robustness of the methodology are pointed out and discussed. We consider this integrative methodology being a substantial improvement of previous scenario assessment methodologies.

Highlights

Background and RationaleEnergy plays an essential role for societal development, and, for achieving a more sustainable development, affecting and involving all societal actors
We introduce an integrative scenario assessment approach that provides a comprehensive framework by combining socio-technical scenarios with a comprehensive sustainability assessment tool
The reason for this static analysis is the fact that the set of non-model-based indicator values presented below can only be defined for a single target year, since the Cross-Impact Balances (CIB) approach applied here informs the model only for the target year

Summary

Introduction

Background and RationaleEnergy plays an essential role for societal development, and, for achieving a more sustainable development, affecting and involving all societal actors. The energy system—i.e., exploration, production, processing, transmission, storage, and use of fuels in industry, services, households, and transport—is responsible for more than two thirds of global greenhouse gas emissions [1], and for the EU, the share is almost 80% [2]. It causes 85% of particulate matter and almost 100% of sulfur oxides and nitrogen oxides, these three pollutants being responsible for most environmental and human health impairments [3]. This ambivalence both strongly requires and impedes strategies for energy system transitions towards more sustainability

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