Integrative risk and uncertainty analysis for complex public sector operational systems

Abstract

Complex public sector operational systems are affected not only by the equipment and software that are used, but also by the personnel who operate the equipment, the procedures specified, the organizational culture, political considerations, and previous management decisions affecting these factors. Because of system complexity, efforts to conduct risk analyses in such environments have typically focused only on specific parts of the operation and have thus not provided a holistic view of the sources of uncertainty and the impacts of various risk elements. In this paper, an integrative framework for performing risk and uncertainty analysis for complex public sector operational systems is developed and described. A set of nested influence diagrams is used to summarize and characterize the important relationships in the system and the uncertainties affecting system output. The relationships within each influence diagram are then modeled analytically or empirically and appropriate risk and uncertainty analysis techniques are chosen for each system component. The results from the individual analyses are then aggregated to obtain a holistic view of the overall risks. The integrative approach is illustrated through a real case study performed for the US Coast Guard's International Ice Patrol. The case study illustrates how sources of uncertainty are identified, models of subsystems are developed that incorporate the uncertain factors, and analyses are performed and synthesized to assess the overall risks associated with determining the “Limits of All Known Ice.” The case study demonstrates that risk analyses can be successfully performed even for very complex operational systems using the integrative approach.