Integrative polygenic risk score improves the prediction accuracy of complex traits and diseases

Abstract

Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) are an emerging tool to predict the clinical phenotypes and outcomes of individuals. We propose PRSmix, a framework that leverages the PRS corpus of a target trait to improve prediction accuracy, and PRSmix+, which incorporates genetically correlated traits to better capture the human genetic architecture for 47 and 32 diseases/traits in European and South Asian ancestries, respectively. PRSmix demonstrated a mean prediction accuracy improvement of 1.20-fold (95% confidence interval [CI], [1.10; 1.3]; p= 9.17×10-5) and 1.19-fold (95% CI, [1.11; 1.27]; p= 1.92×10-6), and PRSmix+ improved the prediction accuracy by 1.72-fold (95% CI, [1.40; 2.04]; p= 7.58×10-6) and 1.42-fold (95% CI, [1.25; 1.59]; p= 8.01×10-7) in European and South Asian ancestries, respectively. Compared to the previously cross-trait-combination methods with scores from pre-defined correlated traits, we demonstrated that our method improved prediction accuracy for coronary artery disease up to 3.27-fold (95% CI, [2.1; 4.44]; p value after false discovery rate (FDR) correction= 2.6×10-4). Our method provides a comprehensive framework to benchmark and leverage the combined power of PRS for maximal performance in a desired target population.