Integration of Tidal Prism Model and HSPF for simulating indicator bacteria in coastal watersheds

Abstract

Coastal water quality is strongly influenced by tidal fluctuations and water chemistry. There is a need for rigorous models that are not computationally or economically prohibitive, but still allow simulation of the hydrodynamics and bacteria sources for coastal, tidally influenced streams and bayous. This paper presents a modeling approach that links a Tidal Prism Model (TPM) implemented in an Excel-based modeling environment with a watershed runoff model (Hydrologic Simulation Program FORTRAN, HSPF) for such watersheds. The TPM is a one-dimensional mass balance approach that accounts for loading from tidal exchange, runoff, point sources and bacteria die-off at an hourly time step resolution. The novel use of equal high-resolution time steps in this study allowed seamless integration of the TPM and HSPF. The linked model was calibrated to flow and E. Coli data (for HSPF), and salinity and enterococci data (for the TPM) for a coastal stream in Texas. Sensitivity analyses showed the TPM to be most influenced by changes in net decay rates followed by tidal and runoff loads, respectively. Management scenarios were evaluated with the developed linked models to assess the impact of runoff load reductions and improved wastewater treatment plant quality and to determine the areas of critical need for such reductions. Achieving water quality standards for bacteria required load reductions that ranged from zero to 90% for the modeled coastal stream.