Abstract
Taxus wallichiana Zucc. (Himalayan yew) is subject to international and national conservation measures because of its over-exploitation and decline over the last 30 years. Predicting the impact of climate change on T. wallichiana’s distribution might help protect the wild populations and plan effective ex situ measures or cultivate successfully. Considering the complexity of climates and the uncertainty inherent in climate modeling for mountainous regions, we integrated three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) (i.e., RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5) based on datasets from 14 Global Climate Models of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 to: (1) predict the potential distribution of T. wallichiana under recent past (1960–1990, hereafter “current”) and future (2050s and 2070s) scenarios with the species distribution model MaxEnt.; and (2) quantify the climatic factors influencing the distribution. In respond to the future warming climate scenarios, (1) highly suitable areas for T. wallichiana would decrease by 31–55% at a rate of 3–7%/10a; (2) moderately suitable areas would decrease by 20–30% at a rate of 2–4%/10a; (3) the average elevation of potential suitable sites for T. wallichiana would shift up-slope by 390 m (15%) to 948 m (36%) at a rate of 42–100 m/10a. Average annual temperature (contribution rate ca. 61%), isothermality and temperature seasonality (20%), and annual precipitation (17%) were the main climatic variables affecting T. wallichiana habitats. Prior protected areas and suitable planting areas must be delimited from the future potential distributions, especially the intersection areas at different suitability levels. It is helpful to promote the sustainable utilization of this precious resource by prohibiting exploitation and ex situ restoring wild resources, as well as artificially planting considering climate suitability.
Highlights
The Himalaya–Hengduan Mountain (HHM) region is located in the world’s Third Pole
T. wallichiana was mainly distributed in the HHM region according to the 84 simulations under the current (1960–1990) condition and the future (2050s and 2070s) scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5) (Fig. 3, Fig. S2)
Significant reduction in suitable area was predicted under the RCP2.5 and RCP4.5 scenarios for the 2050s
Summary
The Himalaya–Hengduan Mountain (HHM) region is located in the world’s Third Pole. It is a biodiversity hotspot and home to Taxus wallichiana Zucc. (Himalayan yew), a relict tree species of the Quaternary glaciation. It is well-known because of taxol, one of the most successful anticancer drugs derived from natural sources. As a relict species from the Quaternary glaciation, it has a history of 2.5 million years on earth and it is known as a living fossil of the plant kingdom. As one of the most successful anticancer drugs derived from natural sources (Yang et al 2017), taxol has a huge and expanding market demand (Miao et al 2015). The population in the HHM region has declined significantly ([ 50% in China, B 90% in Nepal and India) over the last 25–30 years (a single generation) (Thomas and Farjon 2011)
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