Abstract
Understanding the dynamics of floods in dry environments and predicting an accurate flood hazard map considering multiple standards and conflicting objectives is of great political and planning importance in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia’s vision for the year 2030, in order to reduce losses in lives, property, and infrastructure. The objectives of this study are (1) to develop a flood vulnerability map identifying flood-prone areas along the Al-Shamal train railway pathway; (2) to forecast the vulnerability of urban areas, agricultural land, and infrastructure to possible future floods hazard; and (3) to introduce strategic solutions and recommendations to mitigate and protect such areas from the negative impacts of floods. In order to achieve these objectives, multicriteria decision analysis based on geographic information systems (GIS-MCDA) is used to build a flood hazard map of the study area. The analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is applied to extract the weights of eight criteria which affect the areas which are prone to flooding hazards, including flow accumulation, distance from the wadi network, slope, rainfall density, drainage density, and rainfall speed. Furthermore, the receiver operating characteristic (ROC Curve) method is used to validate the presented flood hazard model. The results of the study reveal that there are five degrees of flooding hazard along the Al-Shamal train path, ranging from very high to very low. The high and very high hazard zones comprise 19.2 km along the path, which constitutes about 26.45% of the total path length, and are concentrated at the intersections of the Al-Shamal train pathway with the Bayer and Al-Makhrouk wadis. Moderate, low, and very low flood severity areas constitute nearly 53.39 km, representing 73.55% of the total length (72.59 km) of the track. These areas are concentrated at the intersection of the Al-Shamal train track with the Haseidah Al-Gharbiyeh and Hsaidah Umm Al-Nakhleh wadis. Urban and agricultural areas that are vulnerable to high and very high flooding hazards are shown to have areas of 29.23 km2 (22.12%) and 59.87 km2 (46.39%), respectively.
Highlights
Floods are considered to be the most common and frequent natural hazards [1]
The main aims of this study can be summarized in five items: (1) evaluate the flood hazard on the Al-Shamal train pathway in the Al-Qurayyat region using multicriteria decision analysis based on geographic information systems (GIS-MCDA) and hierarchical analysis (AHP); (2) identify areas vulnerable to flood hazard along the northern railway track and the hazard levels for each part thereof; (3) predict the urban areas, agricultural lands, and infrastructure prone to possible future flood hazards and the degree of hazard in each; (4) reduce the flood hazard and adapt to serve future planning and decision-making in the study area; and (5) propose suitable strategic solutions to mitigate and protect against the negative impacts which are expected due to flood hazards in the study area
area under the curve (AUC) value value indicates indicates that that the the reliability reliability of of the the flood flood hazard hazard map map produced produced in in this this study study is is level
Summary
Floods are considered to be the most common and frequent natural hazards [1]. Flood hazards have increased throughout the world. The severity of a flood is directly related to several factors, including population growth in urban areas and expansion in economic and social infrastructure. Changes in land-use play an important role in the hydrological behavior of drainage basins, the hydrological cycle, and the morphology of wadis, which lead to an increase in flood hazard [2]. A wadi is a natural watercourse depression on the earth’s surface, which is dry except during periods of rainfall. The occurrence of extreme climate changes around the world have a major impact on the frequency of occurrence of floods, as well as their dynamics, rapidness, and destructivity [3]
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