Integration of GIS and statistical approach in mapping of urban sprawl and predicting future growth in Midnapore town, India

Abstract

The spatial expansion of cities appears as an accelerated phenomenon and known as urban sprawl. Usually, the exertion of creating smart growth and sustainable growth becomes in curb because urban sprawl is an unplanned and haphazard growth of urban areas. Therefore, planners should be accurately investigate the trend, patterns and directions of urban growth for sustainable management. This study highlights the existing pattern of the urban sprawl of Midnapore town from 1991 to 2017, using the Normalized Difference Built-up Index and Shannon’s entropy and simulated urban growth of 2030 by Markov chain model. Without overlooking the proviso of scientific urban research, an intensive field survey had been done to find out spatial determinants of urban expansion. Four hypotheses have been selected and factor analysis was applied with the multiple regression analysis to find out the factors of urban growth. Comparatively low land price, distribution of reclaimed land, the benefit of open space in the urban fringe and an opportunity of income are major factors of urban growth. Finally, the potential strategies have been proposed for sustainable management and conservation of the local environment.