Integration of a Road Surface Model into NWS Operations

Abstract

Today's winter weather headlines are based on the meteorological strength of an event with the assumption that stronger events produce larger public impacts. In reality, public impacts involve many factors, such as whether or not snow will accumulate on roads and affect traffic. Along with numerous environmental factors, decisions are further complicated by societal factors (e.g., timing of the commute). The National Weather Service (NWS) Strategic Plan calls for increased emphasis on decision support services (DSS) to our partners, especially during high-impact events. However, determining when events will produce high-impact conditions often remains a challenge. While forecasters should be aware of the relevant societal factors, they also need objective tools capable of integrating over the wide range of environmental factors that intersect in producing high-impact weather. This is particularly true in the case of road surface conditions, where complex interactions between temperature, moisture, and the road surface play a key role in determining what hazards might develop during wintry weather. Initial verification suggests that output from the Model of the Environment and Temperature of Roads (METRo) can provide useful information with regard to the timing and severity of hazardous road surface conditions, allowing NWS forecasters to more effectively highlight the impacts associated with impending meteorological events. This information enhances the DSS that the NWS is able to provide to government partners, local emergency management, and the public during high-impact winter weather events.