Integrating the theory of sampling into a nuclear forensic investigation

Abstract

We present a study case where the theory of sampling (TOS) is used to make defensible inferences in a nuclear forensic investigation. The forensic investigations focused on five suspicious radioactive materials seized in 2019. All errors introduced by sampling and sub-sampling the radioactive materials are evaluated according to TOS. A maximum sampling error of 35% was tolerated. The uses of TOS enabled the forensic team to make inferences about the seized materials and therefore make confidence-based statements about the exceeding of limits established in the Swiss Radiological Protection Ordinance for radioactive substances. The analysis of the isotope and activity ratios allowed the team to exclude some potential sources of the radioactive contamination; however, it was not possible to determine its origin precisely.