Integrating technology foresight methods with environmental life cycle assessment to promote sustainable agriculture

Abstract

The research addressed priority-setting in research and development of environmentally-friendly technologies. A two-step compilation of the opinions of a large number of experts, based on technology foresight methods, is used to define directions for technological advancement and assess the probability of success in each area. The life cycle assessment method is used to quantify the impacts of the expected changes in agricultural production technologies across a wide range of environmental impact categories. Based on case studies of tomato, potato and citrus crop production in Israel, we conclude that technological improvements addressing the use of fertilisers and packing materials show the greatest potential to reduce the environmental impacts. We also conclude that agricultural research on field-grown crops should focus on increasing the yield per hectare, and research on greenhouse grown crops should focus on reducing the impact of the materials used in covering the greenhouse.