Abstract
In which way, and in which sectors, will renewable energy be integrated in the German Energy System by 2030, 2040, and 2050? How can the resulting energy system be characterised following a −95% greenhouse gas emission reduction scenario? Which role will hydrogen play? To address these research questions, techno-economic energy system modelling was performed. Evaluation of the resulting operation of energy technologies was carried out from a system and a business point of view. Special consideration of gas technologies, such as hydrogen production, transport, and storage, was taken as a large-scale and long-term energy storage option and key enabler for the decarbonisation of the non-electric sectors. The broad set of results gives insight into the entangled interactions of the future energy technology portfolio and its operation within a coupled energy system. Amongst other energy demands, CO2 emissions, hydrogen production, and future power plant capacities are presented. One main conclusion is that integrating the first elements of a large-scale hydrogen infrastructure into the German energy system, already, by 2030 is necessary for ensuring the supply of upscaling demands across all sectors. Within the regulatory regime of 2020, it seems that this decision may come too late, which jeopardises the achievement of transition targets within the horizon 2050.
Highlights
The results show that in the year 2050, a premium of just 0.02 €/kWh H2 would lead to an increase in operating hours to more than 8500 h/a, which would correspond to a utilization factor of
Our modelling results describe the path to the economic integration of power-to-gas plants into the German energy system of the future
This is based on an enhancement and coupling of the REMix and MuGriFlex models, the conception of a framework scenario of the energy system transformation in Germany and its neighbouring countries, and the research and integration of extensive data sets on gas system technologies
Summary
The energy transition towards a renewable energy system that serves the demands of the electricity, gas, heat, and transport sectors is one of the most complex societal projects of our time. High temporal and spatial resolution energy system models have been limited to the electricity sector in previous analyses. These focused, for example, on the grid, storage, and power plant capacities needed to balance electricity generation from variable renewable energy (VRE) [1,2]. Models of the gas market and the gas system have been further developed to analyse future scenarios [5,6]. The energy science community has made strong progress in integrating electricity system focused models with natural gas system focused models [8]
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