Integrating Support Vector Regression with Genetic Algorithm for Hydrate Formation Condition Prediction

Abstract

To predict the natural gas hydrate formation conditions quickly and accurately, a novel hybrid genetic algorithm–support vector machine (GA-SVM) model was developed. The input variables of the model are the relative molecular weight of the natural gas (M) and the hydrate formation pressure (P). The output variable is the hydrate formation temperature (T). Among 10 gas samples, 457 of 688 data points were used for training to identify the optimal support vector machine (SVM) model structure. The remaining 231 data points were used to evaluate the generalisation capability of the best trained SVM model. Comparisons with nine other models and analysis of the outlier detection revealed that the GA-SVM model had the smallest average absolute relative deviation (0.04%). Additionally, the proposed GA-SVM model had the smallest amount of outlier data and the best stability in predicting the gas hydrate formation conditions in the gas relative molecular weight range of 15.64–28.97 g/mol and the natural gas pressure range of 367.65–33,948.90 kPa. The present study provides a new approach for accurately predicting the gas hydrate formation conditions.