Integrating risk zoning and multifactor analysis: A strategic approach to ecological carbon sink management

Abstract

Ecological carbon sinks play a crucial role in global carbon cycling and climate mitigation, making their effective management essential. This study develops a novel risk zoning and multifactor analysis framework for ecological carbon sink management in Yunnan Province, China, a region recognized for its ecological diversity and carbon sequestration potential. Our results reveal that high-priority ecological carbon sink zones, mainly in the southwest and western regions, cover 20% of the total area and contain over 60% of the province's carbon stocks. In contrast, high-risk zones, primarily in urbanized regions, show a reduction in carbon sequestration, with emissions exceeding 25.7 million kg due to urban development and landscape degradation. The analysis delineated five distinct risk zones; urgent intervention zones, risk control zones, priority restoration zones, long-term conservation zones, and integrated management zones. Notably, urgent intervention and priority restoration zones, while representing just 9.6% of the area, are critical for protecting over 40% of the carbon sequestration potential. The comprehensive risk zoning framework, combining principal component and canonical correspondence analysis (PCA-CCA), effectively integrates landscape indicators, socio-economic factors, and natural elements. Our innovative, data-driven approach offers strategic insights into managing carbon sinks while balancing ecological integrity and socioeconomic needs, providing a replicable model for ecosystem management.