Abstract
The noble crayfish, Astacus astacus, is an indigenous European freshwater species. Its populations show significant declines caused by anthropogenic pressure on its habitats, climate change and the spread of invasive species. Diminishing populations’ trends and loss of genetic diversity highlight the need for effective conservation that will ensure their long-term survival. We combined population genetics and species distribution modelling (SDM) to reveal the impact of climate change and invasive species on the noble crayfish, and to guide future conservation programs of current populations. Our study showed that Croatian populations of A. astacus harbour an important part of species genetic diversity and represent significant genetic reservoir at the European level. The SDM results predicted substantial reductions of suitable habitats for A. astacus by the 2070; only 13% of its current potential distribution is projected to remain stable under pessimistic Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP 8.5) emission scenario. Moreover, most of the populations with high genetic diversity are located in the areas predicted to become unsuitable, and consequently have a high probability of being lost in the future. Further, SDM results also indicated considerable decrease of future habitat suitability for invasive crayfish species in Croatia, suggesting that climate change poses a major threat to already endangered A. astacus. The obtained results help in the identification of populations and areas with the highest conservation value which should be given the highest priority for protection. In order to preserve present diversity in areas that are predicted as suitable, we propose assisted migration and repopulation approaches, for enhancing populations’ size and saving maximum genetic variability. The result of our research emphasizes once again the benefits of multidisciplinary approach in the modern biodiversity conservation.
Highlights
The noble crayfish, Astacus astacus, is an indigenous European freshwater species
Analyses of genetic data coupled with species distribution models revealed the vulnerability of this keystone species to climate change
The phylogenetic network based on mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) displayed intraspecific relationships within A. astacus consistent with the findings of previous s tudies[7,8,9]
Summary
The noble crayfish, Astacus astacus, is an indigenous European freshwater species. Its populations show significant declines caused by anthropogenic pressure on its habitats, climate change and the spread of invasive species. To guide best-practice conservation and management actions for A. astacus populations in Croatia, we aimed to identify areas of potential current and future habitat suitability overlap between the indigenous A. astacus and the two problematic NICS using Species Distribution Modelling (SDM) (details are provided below). Identifying such areas will enable perceiving locations where endangered A. astacus may overlap with its invasive competitors, currently or in the future, under different climate change scenarios. This information, combined with genetic data, is a crucial piece of information for selecting A. astacus populations with the highest priority for protection
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
