Integrating multiple plant functional traits to predict ecosystem productivity

Abstract

Quantifying and predicting variation in gross primary productivity (GPP) is important for accurate assessment of the ecosystem carbon budget under global change. Scaling traits to community scales for predicting ecosystem functions (i.e., GPP) remain challenging, while it is promising and well appreciated with the rapid development of trait-based ecology. In this study, we aim to integrate multiple plant traits with the recently developed trait-based productivity (TBP) theory, verify it via Bayesian structural equation modeling (SEM) and complementary independent effect analysis. We further distinguish the relative importance of different traits in explaining the variation in GPP. We apply the TBP theory based on plant community traits to a multi-trait dataset containing more than 13,000 measurements of approximately 2,500 species in Chinese forest and grassland systems. Remarkably, our SEM accurately predicts variation in annual and monthly GPP across China (R2 values of 0.87 and 0.73, respectively). Plant community traits play a key role. This study shows that integrating multiple plant functional traits into the TBP theory strengthens the quantification of ecosystem primary productivity variability and further advances understanding of the trait-productivity relationship. Our findings facilitate integration of the growing plant trait data into future ecological models.