Integrating local breeding pond, landcover, and climate factors in predicting amphibian distributions

Abstract

Species distributions are influenced by many processes operating over varying spatial scales. The development of species distribution models (SDMs), also known as ecological niche models, has afforded the opportunity to predict the distributions of diverse taxa across broad geographic areas and identify variables that are potentially important in regulating these distributions. However, the integration of site-specific habitat data with broad scale climate and landcover data has received limited attention in an SDM framework. We investigate whether SDMs developed with breeding pond, landcover, and climate variables can accurately predict the distributions of nine pond-breeding amphibians in eastern Missouri, USA. Additionally we investigate the relative influences of each environmental variable on the distribution predictions for each study species, and whether the most influential variables are shared among multiple taxa. Boosted regression tree (BRT) SDMs were developed for each species with 38 abiotic and biotic environmental variables, including data from the breeding ponds, surrounding landcover, and climate. To test the models, field surveys were performed in 2007 and 2008 at 103 ponds for nine amphibian species. BRT models developed with breeding pond, landcover, and climate data accurately predicted the occurrences of six of nine species across the study area. Furthermore, the presence of each species was best predicted by a unique combination of environmental variables. Results also suggest that landcover and climate factors may be more influential for species near the edge of their geographic ranges, while local breeding pond factors may be more important for species nearer to the center of their ranges.