Integrating Knowledge to Assess Coastal Vulnerability to Sea-Level Rise In El- Mex Bay, Egypt: The Application of the DIVA Tool

Abstract

As part of a broad assessment of climate change impacts in Alexandria, an assessment of vulnerability and adaptation of coastal zones to sea-level rise was conducted. El- Mex Bay which is the most important fishery ground as well as recreation area in Alexandria. Using DIVA-GIS modeling approach, the potential physical vulnerability to accelerated sea-level rise was investigated and the most vulnerable socio-economic sectors were assessed. Results indicate that SLR of 1 m, an area of about 22982.4 Km 2 (21.3 %) of study area will be lost due to inundation. Over 5981 inhabitants (0.99%) will have to move away and many industries occupying 161.82 Km 2 (21.3%) and archeological sites and tombs 20.58 Km 2 (0.4%) will be lost. The most severely impacted sectors are expected to be many industries, research stations, and the port, the urban area, the coastal infrastructures, and the railway. Urban settlements including industrial areas would be the most affected economic assets, while residential lands are relatively preserved due to their high altitude. Potential response strategies and adaptation options identified include: sand fixation, beach nourishment and building of seawalls to protect the urban and industrial areas of high value. It was also recommended that an Integrated Coastal Zone Management Plan for the region, including upgrading awareness, building regulation and urban growth planning should be the most appropriate tool to ensure a long-term sustainable development, while addressing the vulnerability of the coast to future sea-level rise.