Integrating genealogy and epidemiology: The ancestral infection and selection graph as a model for reconstructing host virus histories

Abstract

We model the genealogies of coupled haploid host–virus populations. Hosts reproduce and replace other hosts as in the Moran model. The virus can be transmitted between individuals of the same and succeeding generations. The epidemic model allows a selective advantage for susceptible over infected hosts. The coupled host–virus ancestry of a sample of hosts is embedded in a branching and coalescing structure that we call the Ancestral Infection and Selection Graph, a direct analogue to the Ancestral Selection Graph of Krone and Neuhauser [1997. Theoret. Population Biol. 51, 210–237]. We prove this and discuss various special cases. We show that the inter-host viral genealogy is a scaled coalescent. Using simulations, we compare the viral genealogy under this model to earlier published models and investigate the estimatability of the selection and infectious contact rates. We use simulations to compare the persistence of the disease with the time to the ultimate ancestor.