Integrating Future Land Use Scenarios to Evaluate the Spatio-Temporal Dynamics of Landscape Ecological Security

Yi Lu,Yiyang Xu,Yujing Xie,Xiangrong Wang,Kun Li

doi:10.3390/su8121242

Abstract

Urban ecological security is the basic principle of national ecological security. However, analyses of the spatial and temporal dynamics of ecological security remain limited, especially those that consider different scenarios of urban development. In this study, an integrated method is proposed that combines the Conversion of Land Use and its Effects (CLUE-S) model with the Pressure–State–Response (P-S-R) framework to assess landscape ecological security (LES) in Huangshan City, China under two scenarios. Our results suggest the following conclusions: (1) the spatial and temporal dynamics of ecological security are closely related to the urbanization process; (2) although the average values of landscape ecological security are similar under different scenarios, the areas of relatively high security levels vary considerably; and (3) spatial heterogeneity in ecological security exists between different districts and counties, and the city center and its vicinity may face relatively serious declines in ecological security in the future. Overall, the proposed method not only illustrates the spatio-temporal dynamics of landscape ecological security under different scenarios but also reveals the anthropogenic effects on ecosystems by differentiating between causes, effects, and human responses at the landscape scale. This information is of great significance to decision-makers for future urban planning and management.

Highlights

Urbanization has profoundly changed land use around the globe [1]
The principal objectives of this study are as follows: (1) couple the Conversion of Land Use and its Effects (CLUE-S) model and P-S-R framework at the landscape scale to create a new approach for ecological security evaluation; (2) describe the dynamic spatial and temporal changes associated with landscape ecological security; (3) determine the anthropogenic impacts on ecosystems by differentiating among causes, effects, and human responses; and (4) provide useful information for urban planners and decision makers
Our study explores the uncertainty and dynamics of urban ecological security by providing alternative future scenarios of urban development

Summary

Introduction

Urbanization has profoundly changed land use around the globe [1]. Many ecological and environmental problems have worsened, such as global climate change [5], urban flooding [6], and surface water pollution [7]. The increased vulnerability of urban landscapes to large-scale environmental changes that arise from urbanization threaten the ecological security in urbanized areas [8]. It is important to determine the effects of urban land use change on ecosystems and quantify the relationships between urban land dynamics and ecological security. This knowledge can improve urban planning and policy making for sustainable urban development [9,10]. The associated values are as follows: Shrubland (0.2), Forest (0.1), Construction land (0.6), Farmland (0.4), Grassland (0.3), Wetland (0.5), and Bareland (0.7) [70,71]

Objectives

Results

Conclusion