Integrating Field Data and a Modeling Approach to Inform Optimum Planting Date × Maturity Group for Soybeans under Current and Future Weather Conditions in Kansas

Abstract

Optimizing planting date by maturity group (PD × MG) is critical to increase productivity and reduce production risks. Understanding the effect of management, not only under current, but also future weather conditions, is even more relevant for developing effective mitigation strategies. This paper provides an analysis of the optimum combinations of soybean PD × MG management in the central-eastern region of Kansas (United States) for both current and future weather conditions. Three geographical clusters illustrating the main environmental and management characteristics were defined within the central-eastern region of Kansas. The Agricultural Production Systems Simulator platform was employed to explore PD × MG combinations (PD from mid-April to mid-July; MG from III to VI) comparing current (2011–2021) and future (2042–2052) weather conditions. Overall, early planting dates produce greater yields, but reduce their stability over time (with a 15% increase in yield variation relative to late planting) across the clusters. Late planting dates resulted in a reduction close to 27% for soybean yields relative to those obtained by planting at early dates under current weather conditions. Furthermore, longer maturity groups (IV, V, and VI) resulted in a reduced yield penalty when planting time was delayed under the current weather conditions. However, this combination did not always represent the strategy that maximized yields.