Integrating equity, climate risks, and population growth for targeting conservation planning

Abstract

Where landowners, non-profit organizations, and government agencies prioritize conservation activities has significant implications for people, ecosystems, and climate resilience. Our study builds on conservation decision-making scholarship by analyzing the relationships between biodiversity priorities, social vulnerability, climate risks, and projected population growth in Texas to identify geographies that simultaneously support multiple goals. Drawing from publicly available datasets, we show the potential for existing conservation priorities to exacerbate the inequitable distribution of environmental goods and services, especially for lower-income residents, communities of color, and socially vulnerable populations. Using bivariate local indicators of spatial autocorrelation, we demonstrate effective ways to avoid negative social impacts by identifying synergistic locations with high levels of social vulnerability and biodiverse landscapes. We overlay these locations with climate risks to further prioritize areas that could meet biodiversity, social vulnerability, and climate adaptation needs. Lastly, we consider how future population growth may inform the urgency of conservation activities given potential development pressures. Our study contributes to academic and policy debates seeking to jointly address biodiversity conservation, climate change, and environmental justice concerns.