Abstract
Earthquakes pose substantial risks of human health. Preparedness and mitigation strategies can reduce earthquake-related injuries and deaths and information from casualty models that predict earthquake outcomes can help communities prepare. This study identifies epidemiologic and medical risk factors for earthquake casualties, and compares them with engineering casualty models for the purpose of providing evidence that integrates these approaches. It aims to improve earthquake casualty modeling and to offer better accurate estimations. Epidemiological studies that used analytical designs and reported risk factors related to earthquake-induced casualties and studies that examined the association between medical preparedness and earthquake-induced casualties were re- viewed. Engineering casualty estimation models were reviewed to identify which risk factors were considered in the models. Epidemiological studies identified the following risk factors: gender, age, socioeconomic status, physical disability and human behavior. Medical preparedness factors were also related to earthquake-induced injury and death. Global casualty estimation models do not currently consider these factors. This study provides evidence that integrating demographic and socioeconomic characteristics of the population and levels of medical preparedness into the existing casualty estimation models may improve their accuracy.
Highlights
The estimated number of casualties is one of the central factors guiding emergency preparedness planning for a strong earthquake
Articles were included in this review if they focused on risk factors that were related to the previously mentioned human factors and used analytical designs that presented a quantified measure of the different risk factors
The present study revealed that population characteristics, such as gender and age distribution, a physical disability, socioeconomic status, and human behavior during the event, affected the choice of protective strategy, all of which have a crucial influence on the number of casualties from a given event
Summary
The estimated number of casualties is one of the central factors guiding emergency preparedness planning for a strong earthquake. The casualty burden from massive earthquakes is high. Earthquakes were the most deadly natural disaster in the last 24 years, resulting in over 800,000 deaths and 1.7 million injuries (46 % of the total death toll and 29 % of total injuries caused by natural disasters from 1990 to 2013) (EM-DAT 2014). Global trends toward urbanization combined with an increase in population density, poverty and social gaps increase the vulnerability of urban centers in the face of natural disasters, including earthquakes (Tekeli-Yesil 2006; Donner and Rodriguez 2008). The major source of information for community preparedness activities does not consider the exposed population and has rarely integrated human factors
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