Integrating ecosystem services and climate change responses in coastal wetlands development plans for Bangladesh

Abstract

This study explores the integration of ecosystem services and climate change adaptation in development plans for coastal wetlands in Bangladesh. A new response framework for adaptation is proposed, based on an empirical analysis and consultations with stakeholders, using a modified version of the DPSIR (Driver-Pressure-State-Impact- Response) framework. The framework is tested in the Narail district of Bangladesh, where temperature has increased by about 1 °C in the summer in combination with an increase in rainfall of 0.70 mm day −1 yr −1 in the last decade. Calibrated model (MAGICC/SENGEN) projections forecast, on average, a temperature increase of up to 5 °C and an increase in rainfall of 25 % by the end of this century. Water diversion in the upstream regions of the Ganges River delta contributes to increase water scarcity in the dry season. Enhanced rainfall and the immense pressure of water discharges from upstream water sources are increasing the risk of floods and river erosion in thedry season. Anincrease in thewater holding capacity of rivers, wetlandsand canals by dredging is urgently required. The empirical model ofthisstudy isintended tosupport adaptation planning and monitoring in Bangladesh and can be used in other data-poor areas which will suffer from climate change.