Integrating Econometric and Spatially Explicit Dynamic Models to Simulate Land Use Transitions in the Cerrado Biome

Abstract

Land use changes in Brazil have broad implications within environ-mental, socio-economic, and policy contexts. Despite extensive research on the topic, there are still significant gaps, namely in modeling the nature of drivers of land use change across Brazil’s large biomes. We aim to fill this gap by coupling econometric with spatially explicit models to explore future trends in land use change in the Cerrado biome. Cerrado savannas are considered a biodiversity hotspot, occupying 24% of Brazil’s territory. Nevertheless, the native vegetation in this region is under mounting pressure due to agricultural expansion. The econometric model we developed determines gross rates of deforestation and regrowth in each municipality within the Cerrado biome from 2002 to 2009. We used GEODA and agricultural Census data (IBGE 1995, 2006) to develop an auto-regression spatial model. This model was coupled with a spatially explicit model developed using Dinamica EGO software. Simulations from 2009 to 2050 resulted in a loss of 14.2 Mha of native vegetation and regrowth of 18.5 Mha, showing that complex land use dynamics are in place. Our results are in line with other studies that show lower probabilities of deforestation inside protected areas and indigenous lands. There is a high probability however of deforestation in some of the buffer zones around these protected areas, which must therefore be continuously monitored. We conclude that there is a need for a consistent monitoring framework, built upon the work of different governmental and non-governmental initiatives, in order to design and implement effective conservation actions in this important Brazilian biome.