Integrating discrete choice models and agent-based models for ex-ante evaluation of stakeholder policy acceptability in urban freight transport

Abstract

This paper discusses the potential benefits of combining discrete choice models (DCMs) and agent-based models (ABMs) to provide a stakeholder behavioural analysis and support stakeholder engagement in urban freight transport (UFT) planning. The integrated modelling framework allows to evaluate stakeholders’ policy acceptability taking into account their heterogeneous preferences and their interactive behaviour. The stakeholder behavioural analysis proposed, together with technical and economic analyses, contributes to the ex-ante policy assessment needed to support policy-makers in taking well-thought-out decisions. An application of the modelling framework is here presented with the aim to prove its feasibility and added value for UFT policy-making, since it provides a ranking of policies that are likely to be accepted by stakeholders and that satisfy their heterogeneous desires and objectives while accounting for interaction effects.