Integrating Delphi methodology to some classical concepts of the Boston consulting group framework: arctic maritime technology BCG Delphi foresight—a pilot study from Finland

Abstract

This article presents a way how the Boston Consulting Group (BCG) analysis tools can be combined with the Delphi methodology, and especially with the BCG portfolio matrix analysis. The Delphi Method is one of the most well-known futures research methods. It is an expert group interview process, which is based on two or more iterative rounds of expert interviews. Typical aspects of the Delphi methodology are anonymity and the conventional emphasis of consensus of experts with associated statistical evaluations. A conventional definition of the business portfolio is that it is the collection of businesses and products that make up the company. This article includes an experimental pilot study of the Finnish maritime cluster and its technological future options where integrative BCG Delphi methodology was used. Detailed pilot study results and learning are reported in this article. The study reveals a high potential of the BCG Delphi studies in the industrial and corporate foresight fields. Especially, futures of industrial product and service portfolios can be diagnosed and forecast by this novel methodological approach. The Delphi methodology is according to a metaphor “one of the best and constantly evolving computer’s operating system”, which can be linked to many other “programs”, among others to the conventional BCG tool package. To be strategically oriented from the BCG business perspective, the key issue strategically for European cities and regions is the strong local existence of Cash Cows (good and successful companies). Decision-makers in cities and regions should be interested in the strategy of optimum Cash Cow flows if they want to develop their cities and regions in the long-run. Thus, products with high market share and slow, but stable growth trajectory are Cash Cows.