Integrating Delphi and participatory backcasting in pursuit of trustworthiness — The case of electric mobility in Germany

Abstract

Backcasting is an established approach to assess the creation and realisation of desirable futures, being especially suitable for complex issues where a radical change is required. A variety of methods is used to execute backcasting exercises with broad stakeholder participation. However, due to certain group inefficiencies it is a challenge to execute backcasting exercises in a participatory and yet rigorous and trustworthy way. We present an innovative participatory backcasting approach, integrating a Delphi survey and semi-structured interviews for electric mobility in Germany. As a major contribution, we demonstrate how to increase trustworthiness in participatory backcasting, by allowing for continuous stakeholder participation in a structured and transparent manner: from the creation of a preferable future to the assessment of the major factors leading to this future. The results illustrate a future vision of electric mobility in Germany in the year 2030 and present a discussion of the major factors leading to this desirable future. In addition to presenting the major benefits of our approach by integrating Delphi and participatory backcasting, we also outline the challenges related to this approach, such as difficulties in developing detailed roadmaps or the limited inclusion of end-users as major stakeholders.