Integrating complex system dynamics of pandemic influenza with a multi-criteria decision making model for evaluating public health strategies

Abstract

Recent developments in computational sciences and computer modeling have allowed emergency preparedness exercises to include simulation models as supporting tools. These simulation models are generally built for predicting temporal and geographic patterns of disease spread. However sole use of simulation models in exercise design falls short in terms of incorporating policy decision makers’ preferences into decision-making processes. In this paper, a general framework for exercising public health preparedness plans with a decision support system is presented to integrate estimation of key epidemiological parameters with a system dynamics model of an outbreak. A multi-criteria decision making framework, an Analytical Hierarchy Process model, is then developed and integrated with the simulation model to help public health policy makers prioritize their response goals and evaluate mitigation strategies in a table-top exercise environment.