Integrating complex asset health modelling techniques with continuous time simulation modelling: A practical tool for maintenance and capital investments analysis

Abstract

An Asset Health Index (AHI) is a tool that processes data about asset’s condition. That index is intended to explore if alterations can be generated in the health of the asset along its life cycle. These data can be obtained during the asset’s operation, but they can also come from other information sources such as geographical information systems, supplier’s reliability records, relevant external agent’s records, etc. The tool (AHI) provides an objective point of view to justify, for instance, the extension of an asset useful life, or to identify which assets from a fleet are candidates for an early replacement, or renovation, as a consequence of a premature aging.This paper describes how to build the AHI model as a continuous time simulation model, which is then implemented using Vensim simulation environment. This is done in order to: 1) improve model formulating robustness, 2) benefit of the outstanding software optimization features for AHI model parameters calibration; and 2) easy the provision of predictions for asset degradation, operational and capital investments risk under different possible exogenous scenarios and endogenous managerial options.The process of model building, and parameterization is applied to an industrial case of a regasification terminal. Several strategies involving major maintenance scheduling are compared in terms of total expenditure in assets over their life cycle.