Integrating Community Ecology into Models of Vector-Borne Virus Transmission.

Abstract

Vector-borne plant viruses are a diverse and dynamic threat to agriculture with hundreds of economically damaging viruses and insect vector species. Mathematical models have greatly increased our understanding of how alterations of vector life history and host-vector-pathogen interactions can affect virus transmission. However, insect vectors also interact with species such as predators and competitors in food webs, and these interactions affect vector population size and behaviors in ways that mediate virus transmission. Studies assessing how species' interactions affect vector-borne pathogen transmission are limited in both number and scale, hampering the development of models that appropriately capture community-level effects on virus prevalence. Here, we review vector traits and community factors that affect virus transmission, explore the existing models of vector-borne virus transmission and areas where the principles of community ecology could improve the models and management, and finally evaluate virus transmission in agricultural systems. We conclude that models have expanded our understanding of disease dynamics through simulations of transmission but are limited in their ability to reflect the complexity of ecological interactions in real systems. We also document a need for experiments in agroecosystems, where the high availability of historical and remote-sensing data could serve to validate and improve vector-borne virus transmission models.