Integrating carbon footprint to spatialized modeling: The mitigation potential of sugarcane ethanol production in the Brazilian Center-South

Abstract

Biomass cultivation has a large influence over the resulting bio-based products and is largely influenced by local conditions. Therefore, accounting for spatialization into sustainability assessments under the life-cycle perspective is key. The study aims to integrate satellite image classification for sugarcane areas in the Center-South of Brazil with georeferenced modeling for sugarcane yield and ethanol production. 290 ethanol mills were simulated, and the resulting inventories were used to trace ethanol's carbon footprint spatial profile and mitigation potential for gasoline substitution. Ethanol's carbon intensity varied from 14.38 to 34.0 gCO2e.MJ−1, with an average of 18.41 gCO2e.MJ−1. By translating these indicators into Decarbonization Credits (CBIOS), under the RenovaBio program, a GHG mitigation potential of 45.07 MtCO2e could be annually attributed to the current Brazilian ethanol sector, corresponding to an additional revenue of US$ 0.88 billion. The proposed georeferenced framework showed significant spatial variations that should be accounted in future sustainability assessments.