Abstract
Understanding potential risks, vulnerabilities, and impacts to weather extremes and climate change are key information needs for coastal planners and managers in support of climate adaptation. Assessing historical trends and potential socio-economic impacts is especially difficult in the Arctic given limitations on availability of weather observations and historical impacts. This study utilizes a novel interdisciplinary approach that integrates archival analysis, observational data, and climate model downscaling to synthesize information on historical and projected impacts of extreme weather events in Nome, Alaska. Over 300 impacts (1990–2018) are identified based on analyses of the Nome Nugget newspaper articles and Storm Data entries. Historical impacts centered on transportation, community activities, and utilities. Analysis of observed and ERA5 reanalysis data indicates that impacts are frequently associated with high wind, extreme low temperatures, heavy snowfall events, and winter days above freezing. Downscaled output (2020–2100) from two climate models suggests that there will be changes in the frequency and timing of these extreme weather events. For example, extreme cold temperature is projected to decrease through the 2040s and then rarely occurs afterwards, and extreme wind events show little change before the 2070s. Significantly, our findings also reveal that not all weather-related extremes will change monotonically throughout the twenty-first century, such as extreme snowfall events that will increase through the 2030s before declining in the 2040s. The dynamical nature of projected changes in extreme events has implications for climate adaptation planning.
Highlights
Extreme weather events and climate change pose significant risks to society, including impacts to transportation and infrastructure, public health, economies, and food and water security (Bouwer 2019)
Analysis of the observational data and projections centered on extreme cold, winter days above freezing, wind, and snowfall events as these extreme events were often linked to socio-economic impacts (Fig. 2)
This study revealed multiple weather-related impacts from extreme events to transportation, utilities, activities, and subsistence in Nome, Alaska
Summary
Extreme weather events and climate change pose significant risks to society, including impacts to transportation and infrastructure, public health, economies, and food and water security (Bouwer 2019). Planners seeking to support climate adaptation are increasingly interested in understanding how risks and impacts may change (Lempert et al 2018) Addressing this need requires understanding historical climatologies and impacts as well as projections of how extreme events may change. Risk assessments are complicated by challenges in monitoring and assessing long-term historical trends in impacts and estimating projected change (Downton et al 2005; Morss et al 2011). This is especially the case in Alaska, where sparse observational networks limit documentation and analyses of extreme weather events and impacts are often only documented for individual events (Brunner et al 2004; Thoman et al 2020). We conclude by discussing implications for planning in Nome and more broadly across Alaska
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