Abstract

Abstract. Advances in the understanding and prediction of tsunami impacts allow for the development of risk reduction strategies for tsunami-prone areas. This paper presents a tsunami vulnerability and risk assessment for the case study of El Salvador, the applied methodology dealing with the complexity and variability of coastal zones by means of (i) an integral approach to cover the entire risk-related process from the hazard, vulnerability and risk assessments to the final risk management; (ii) an integrated approach to combine and aggregate the information stemming from the different dimensions of coupled human and natural systems; and (iii) a dynamic and scale-dependent approach to integrate the spatiotemporal variability considerations. This work also aims at establishing a clear connection to translate the vulnerability and risk assessment results into adequate target-oriented risk reduction measures, trying to bridge the gap between science and management for the tsunami hazard. The approach is applicable to other types of hazards, having been successfully applied to climate-change-related flooding hazard.

Highlights

  • Advances in the understanding and prediction of tsunami impacts allow for the development of risk reduction strategies for tsunami-prone areas

  • Tsunami risk assessments are essential for the identification of the exposed areas and of the most vulnerable communities and elements, with the hazard, vulnerability and risk results being critical for the formulation of adequate, site-specific and vulnerability-oriented risk management options

  • One can differentiate the reasons why two municipalities have similar socioeconomic sensitivity, identifying whether it is due to the potential loss of contribution to foreign trade or gross domestic product (GDP)

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Summary

Introduction

Advances in the understanding and prediction of tsunami impacts allow for the development of risk reduction strategies for tsunami-prone areas. Tsunami risk assessments are essential for the identification of the exposed areas and of the most vulnerable communities and elements, with the hazard, vulnerability and risk results being critical for the formulation of adequate, site-specific and vulnerability-oriented risk management options. Risk-related works in the literature differ according to the risk component analysed (i.e. hazard, exposure, vulnerability, impacts, resilience, coping capacity, etc.), the risk dimension dealt with (i.e. human, infrastructural, environmental, social, economic, etc.), and the spatial scale tackled (i.e. regional, national, local, etc.), thereby proving the complexity associated to risk assessment and management. Regarding the existing literature on tsunami risk, several authors centre their work on the tsunami hazard itself, trying to understand its evolution from the generation and propagation phases until its arrival at the coastal area with the aim of predicting the tsunami location, magnitude, duration and probability (Gosenberg and Schlurmann, 2009; Harbitz et al, 2012; Álvarez-Gómez, 2013), while others propose a methodology for the integration of various hazards (Greiving et al, 2006). Many deal with resilience, coping capacities, preparedness, etc. (UNESCO, 2009a; Wegscheider et al, 2011; US IOTWSP, 2007), with some of them concentrating on tsunami evacuation modelling (Van Zuilekom et al, 2005; Aboelata and Bowles, 2005; Mück, 2008; Clerveaux et al, 2008; Alvear Brito et al, 2009; Kolen et al, 2010)

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