Abstract
In this study, lignocellulose biorefineries annexed to a typical sugar mill were investigated to produce either ethanol (EtOH) or 1,3-butadiene (BD), utilizing bagasse and trash as feedstock. Aspen simulation of the scenarios were developed and evaluated in terms of economic and environmental performance. The minimum selling prices (MSPs) for bio-based BD and EtOH production were 2.9–3.3 and 1.26–1.38-fold higher than market prices, respectively. Based on the sensitivity analysis results, capital investment, Internal Rate of Return and extension of annual operating time had the greatest impact on the MSP. Monte Carlo simulation demonstrated that EtOH and BD productions could be profitable if the average of ten-year historical price increases by 1.05 and 1.9-fold, respectively. The fossil-based route was found inferior to bio-based pathway across all investigated environmental impact categories, due to burdens associated with oil extraction.
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