Abstract
This study assessed how hydraulic fracturing (HF) (water withdrawals from nearby river water source) and its associated activities (construction of well pads) would affect surface water and groundwater in 2021–2036 under changing climate (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios of the CanESM2) in a shale gas and oil play area (23,984.9 km2) of northwestern Alberta, Canada. An integrated hydrologic model (MIKE-SHE and MIKE-11 models), and a cumulative effects landscape simulator (ALCES) were used for this assessment. The simulation results show an increase in stream flow and groundwater discharge in 2021–2036 under both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios with respect to those under the base modeling period (2000–2012). This occurs because of the increased precipitation and temperature predicted in the study area under both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The results found that HF has very small (less than 1%) subtractive impacts on stream flow in 2021–2036 because of the large size of the study area, although groundwater discharge would increase minimally (less than 1%) due to the increase in the gradient between groundwater and surface water systems. The simulation results also found that the construction of well pads related to HF have very small (less than 1%) additive impacts on stream flow and groundwater discharge due to the non-significant changes in land use. The obtained results from this study provide valuable information for effective long-term water resources decision making in terms of seasonal and annual water extractions from the river, and allocation of water to the oil and gas industries for HF in the study area to meet future energy demand considering future climate change.
Highlights
Surface water and groundwater are essential resources for the survival of human beings, livestock, wildlife, terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems
The results of this study provide a good prospect for future hydraulic fracturing (HF) in the study area under the RCP4.5 and the RCP8.5 scenarios of the CanESM2 in 2021–2036 without causing any substantial negative impacts on stream flow and groundwater discharge compared to the base modeling period (2000–2012)
This study evaluated how HF and its associated activities would affect surface water and groundwater in 2021–2036 under changing climate (i.e., RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios of the CanESM2)
Summary
Surface water and groundwater are essential resources for the survival of human beings, livestock, wildlife, terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. They are extensively used in agricultural, industrial, oil and gas exploration, household and recreation activities. Surface water and groundwater are closely connected components of the hydrologic system. Because of their close connectivity, the use of any one component can affect the other. It is necessary to conduct integrated surface water and groundwater analysis for developing sustainable water resources management. Surface water (e.g., rivers, streams, lakes, wetlands, estuaries) and groundwater are extremely vulnerable to climate change [1]. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reported that the projection of global atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHG) will continue to increase
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