Abstract
This paper explores approaches concerning complex forest planning challenges, such as restoration after large-scale disturbances and under climate change. It introduces a new framework that integrates qualitative scenario planning with quantitative multi-criteria decision analysis. This framework allows stakeholders without background in forestry to express their preferences as a set of scenarios that are further assessed for specific forest management goals and activities using multi-criteria models. The assessment of the modelled scenarios created a common understanding for the stakeholders and experts to compare trade-offs between several management options and needed policy choices. The framework was applied in the case study of forest restoration following insect disturbance in British Columbia, Canada. The framework enabled structured stakeholder groups’ interactions such as industry, business associations, local and regional governments, and non-governmental organizations to identify potential restoration options. Different community futures were envisioned by two scenarios: one resembling current conditions and standard practices, while another promoting diversification of the forestry sector. The results indicated that each of the scenarios leads to different consequences for the community measured by levels of economic benefits, total harvest volumes and harvest flows over time. The results also show that the developed framework linking scenarios and multi-criteria decision analyses proved crucial to broaden the discussion on relevant species mixes and management practices, and their implications for the community and policy development.
Highlights
Forest management planning is a complex decision-making challenge that needs to account for long time horizons, uncertain biophysical and socioeconomic parameters, and multiple stakeholders’ preferences with often conflicting objectives (Food and Agriculture Organization [FAO], 2002; Karjalainen et al, 2003; Leslie, 2009; Khadka et al, 2013)
We focus on gaps in connecting qualitative approaches, namely scenario planning, with quantitative methods, such as the multiple-objective programming (MOP) approach into an integrated multi-criteria decisions framework
Several studies advocating the integration of scenario planning with Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) have based their analyses on several assumptions: i) future scenarios are well defined; ii) a finite number of alternatives are given and iii) the scenarios are comparable and performance of each alternative can be evaluated in terms of same criteria (Mendoza & Prabhu, 2005; Montibeller & Franco, 2010; Stewart et al, 2013)
Summary
Forest management planning is a complex decision-making challenge that needs to account for long time horizons, uncertain biophysical and socioeconomic parameters, and multiple stakeholders’ preferences with often conflicting objectives (Food and Agriculture Organization [FAO], 2002; Karjalainen et al, 2003; Leslie, 2009; Khadka et al, 2013) Such complex problems have been typically examined using different approaches—from public consultation, scenario planning, simulation and optimization to multiple-criteria decision analysis (Bolte, et al, 2006; Krcmar & van Kooten, 2008; Diaz-Balteiro & Romero, 2008). We analyze a case study of the community of Quesnel in British Columbia, Canada to discuss the opportunities and limitations of the application of the framework while actively involving of stakeholders in forest planning process
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