Integrated resource planning for Iran: Development of reference energy system, forecast, and long-term energy-environment plan

Abstract

The objectives of this study are to (i) develop a reference energy system and forecast of energy consumption (EC) for a 25 year period (2011–2035) for Iran and (ii) examine the effects of several demand and supply side management strategies on resource depletion and environmental emissions. A reference energy system is developed utilizing Iran energy balance data for 2009. Bottom-up analysis is performed using LEAP (long-range energy alternative planning) based on EC forecasted by two methods, namely, artificial neural network and Joel Darmstadter model. For demand side management, four scenarios are examined: (a) replacement of incandescent lamps with compact fluorescent lamps (CFL), (b) utilization of electric stoves (ES) in place of natural gas (NG) fueled stoves, (c) employment of coal power plants (CPP), and (d) applying all these scenarios together (ALL). On the supply side, the utilization of hydro-pump storage and employment of upgrading gas turbine plants to combined cycle ones are also considered for (a), (b), and (d) scenarios. The results show that applying CFL, ES, CPP, and ALL scenarios up to year 2035 results in crude oil and NG savings equivalent to 1.67, 1.24, 1.86, and 3.22 times Iran total primary crude oil and NG supply in 2009, respectively.