Integrated nexus approach to assessing climate change impacts on grassland ecosystem dynamics: A case study of the grasslands in Tanzania

Abstract

This study addresses the intricate interplay between climate, vegetation, and livestock dynamics in Tanzania within the Climate-Vegetation-Livestock (CVL) nexus through a quantitative assessment. By examining the temporal and spatial relationships between vegetation indices (NDVI, EVI, NPP) and key climatic variables (Precipitation, Temperature, Evapotranspiration) from 2009 to 2019, and projecting to 2050, this research aims to elucidate vegetation responses to climate change and its subsequent impacts on livestock. To this end, the relationship between the vegetation dynamics indicators (NDVI, NPP) and climate parameters is evaluated to quantify the vegetation response to climate change using statistical models. Next, an examination of multicollinearity is conducted to investigate potential interactions (nexus) between variables, incorporating the correlation among independent variables. Notably, the evaluation of performance and accuracy for the mentioned models is conducted through the cross-validation method and validation indices. Ultimately, the variation between projected NPP and NDVI (average for 2040–2060) and the present NPP and NDVI (average for 2009–2020) identifies the regions that are most likely susceptible, showcasing the vegetation cover's reaction to climate change in different emission scenarios. The results unveil significant spatio-temporal variations in vegetation dynamics influenced by climatic factors, where higher precipitation and temperatures correlate with increased vegetation health and productivity. The projected fluctuations in NDVI and NPP values indicate varying trends across different regions, with a general decrease in vegetation density and productivity from the northeast to the west under both RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios by 2050. This decline is attributed to anticipated changes in precipitation and temperature patterns driven by climate change. Furthermore, significant declines in vegetation density and productivity under emission scenarios, particularly in the southern regions compared to the present, suggest greater vulnerability to climate change impacts. This highlights the need for targeted mitigation strategies in these vulnerable areas. Meanwhile, northeast areas under both NDVI and NPP will remain unchanged across both climate scenarios. Moreover, analysis of livestock distribution maps indicates areas of vulnerability under climate change scenarios, with implications for future livestock management and agricultural practices. These findings underscore the importance of proactive planning and targeted interventions to enhance resilience and sustainable development in vulnerable regions, emphasizing the need for integrated approaches that consider the complex interactions between climate, vegetation, and livestock dynamics.