Integrated multi-objective stochastic fuzzy programming and AHP method for agricultural water and land optimization allocation under multiple uncertainties

Abstract

Optimization allocation of agricultural water and land is a very complex system involves multiple objectives. Moreover, weights of each objective were signed by subjective judgement of decision makers is unreasonable. Furthermore, uncertainties are inevitable in the optimization allocation of irrigation water and land. In order to solve the above problems, this paper developed an improved multi-objective stochastic fuzzy programming method. The developed model was then applied to a case study in Wuwei City, Gansu Province, China. Maximum net benefit, maximum agricultural water productivity, and minimum irrigation area were regarded as planning objectives. A series of optimal irrigation and planting structure schemes were obtained under multiple uncertainties. From the results, water resources shortage in Wuwei city is very severely and it could not satisfy Wuwei's water demand even if the risk probability Pi reaches 0.25. Moreover, water and irrigation area would vary in different crops. Such changes would mainly take place in potato, vegetable and cucurbit, which have the same characteristics with higher yield, lower cost or lower irrigation quota than other crops. Furthermore, the decision makers could make reasonable decisions on the optimal use of irrigation water and land resources under multiple objective and uncertainties based on the obtained results.