INTEGRATED MODELLING TO PREDICT LANDSCAPE EVOLUTION, FLOODING, AND WATER QUALITY IN JAMAICA BAY, NY

Abstract

It is well-known that rising sea levels will increase pressure along shorelines, yet how society and natural systems will respond is uncertain. Natural systems such as wetlands can respond dynamically to changing conditions, and recent sea level rise has been matched in many places with a rising marsh substrate. The societal response to increasing flooding by necessity is adaptation, particularly in areas with a higher population. However, the subsequent influences on flooding, habitat, and water quality have rarely been evaluated. Jamaica Bay, NY is a coastal embayment bounded on the south by the Rockaway Peninsula and the Atlantic Ocean, on the north by Brooklyn, Queens, and Nassau counties, on the east by the John F. Kennedy Airport, and to the lower bay of New York Harbor on the west through the Rockaway Inlet (Sanderson et al. 2016). The Bay perimeter is home to a large human population, as well as a variety of wildlife that live within the Bay’s salt marsh and adjacent upland ecosystems. The Bay has been identified as an area where ecosystem restoration will potentially have a major impact for protection of the Bay’s population, as well as enhancing the recreational, commercial, and ecological services the Bay provides.