Integrated modelling of a coupled water-agricultural system using system dynamics

Abstract

An integrated System Dynamics Model for the water-stressed Rosetta region, Egypt, assessing water balance, and agricultural yield and revenue to 2050, is presented. The study uses 57 simulations to better understand impacts on water, food and economic security and their interactions, in order to highlight potential pathways towards a more sustainable future for the Rosetta region. Current water resource over-exploitation can be mitigated while still allowing for agricultural development. The utility of the system dynamics paradigm in modelling complex systems is highlighted, with the potential to extend the methodology to other studies. While most simulations hinted at continued over-exploitation, some suggest that improvements can be achieved by altering parameters such as per-capita domestic water demand and/or the cropping regime. Many policies should be considered in parallel to introduce redundancy into the policy framework. From initial results, it was hypothesised that by producing excess crops, international markets could be exploited, leading to further improvements in the water balance, yield and revenue. A model extension was built which suggested that improvements are possible, furthering local development. However, these improvements would probably manifest after years, have to be managed carefully, and would increase reliance on other countries.