Integrated indicators for the analysis of vulnerability in a socio-ecological system of the Atlantic Forest in southern Brazil

Abstract

The Brazilian Atlantic Forest, a biodiversity conservation hotspot, is extremely fragmented and threatened by the global urban-industrial economic approach. A small part of what remains is protected by Conservation Units (UC) of varying categories. This makes natural populations in UC's increasingly vulnerable, since these areas are ecologically fragile. This is further compromised by socio-economic marginalization of much of the local human population. Consequently, we analyzed the areas surrounding two protected natural areas in the port city of Paranaguá, in southern Brazil. We analyzed socio-environmental vulnerability in the face of extreme weather events, the risk of flooding and the change in land use of this socio-ecological system, using integrated socioeconomic, demographic, environmental and climate indicators. Results showed that this peripheral population is more vulnerable, compared to other areas of the municipality that have better infrastructure and economic conditions, and improved access to public services and confirming a world-wide trend between population density and the formation of marginalized populations around natural areas, especially in biodiversity hotspots. At the same time, the Conservation Units and the provision of ecosystem services are at risk due to the change in land use and urban expansion in this region, highlighting the need for integrated public policies for this socio-ecological system.