Integrated Hydrological Modeling of Climate Change Scenarios on Future Flood Estimations: A Case Study of Bafra Subbasin in the Black Sea Region, Türkiye

Abstract

A primary concern about climate change is the possible rise in the frequency and severity of extreme meteorological/climatological events, like heat waves, intense storms, severe flooding, or droughts. Extreme precipitation events are predicted to increase in size and frequency due to climate change, which could result in more frequent and severe river flooding. Hydrological modeling is integral to accurately deriving flow hydrographs, which is crucial for hydraulic models. This study employs various statistical distributions to assess future simulations' rainfall-runoff relationship and project flow hydrographs under climate change scenarios in the Bafra subbasin of the Black Sea Region. The investigation centers on obtaining flow hydrographs for the Bafra subbasin in the Black Sea Region. The annual maximum precipitation value for the relevant year is determined from daily total precipitation values, and its compatibility with statistical distributions is systematically evaluated. The modeling process considers two climate change scenarios, a moderate radiative forcing scenario (RCP 4.5) and a warming scenario (RCP 8.5), extending projections from 2006 to 2100. The RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios’ data sets are sourced from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) data for future estimations. MNA-44 domain that covers Türkiye with a horizontal resolution of 0.44 degrees and 232 points in longitude and 118 points in latitude is used. An accurate determination of flow hydrographs is essential in hydrological modeling. Various statistical distributions, such as Normal Distribution, Log-Normal (2 Parameters), Log-Normal (3 Parameters), Pearson Type-3 (Gamma Type-3), Log-Pearson Type-3, and Gumbel distributions, are employed to identify the most suitable distribution, and the base flow is taken as the current 95% of the time for flow hydrographs. The goodness of fit tests using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test are conducted to assess distribution types. As a result of the conducted analyses, in the RCP4.5 flow hydrograph, the Q50 value is determined as 334.7 m3/s, the Q100 value as 350.5 m3/s, and the Q500 value as 382.3 m3/s. In contrast, in the RCP8.5 flow hydrograph, these values are obtained as 395.5 m3/s, 429.4 m3/s, and 506.1 m3/s, respectively. Accordingly, in the pessimistic scenario, the discharge amount that would lead to flooding is 18% higher at Q50, 22% higher at Q100, and 32% higher at Q500. The integration of statistical analyses and climate scenarios enhances the accuracy and reliability of flood estimations, contributing to a comprehensive understanding of the potential impacts of climate change on hydrological processes in the Black Sea Region. In further studies, hydraulic modeling of the flood will be carried out using the Hydrologic Engineering Center - River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) with the most appropriate hydrographs that are obtained from future simulations (RCP 4.5, RCP 8.5). The inundation area of the flood will be computed employing this model, and the hydrological impacts resulting from diverse climate simulations will be acquired through two-dimensional modeling, thereby enhancing comprehension.